Tag Archives: Psychology

Emotional Response Best Predicted by Response of Others

If I’m told about a future event I may take part in, I feel that I’m the best estimator of what my own emotional response will be to that event. Experimental psychology results described in “The Surprising Power of Neighborly Advice” (published March 20, 2009 in Science) show that not only is this what we all typically think but also that it’s false.

Each participant in the experiments was either given information about an event that they’d take part in or was provided the opinion of another participant on how much they thought the individual would enjoy (or not) the future event. Each participant was then asked to rate how much they were likely to enjoy (or not) the future event. After providing a rating the participant was exposed to the other set of information (the opinion of another participant or information about the future event) so that, by the time of the event, all participants were exposed to the same set of information. After the event, each participant stated how much they enjoyed (or not) the event.

The researchers then compared the emotional response each individual predicted with the response they reported at the end of the event. The results showed that those who heard the opinion of another participant on how they may respond to an event were significantly more accurate in predicting their final response than those who simply knew details about the upcoming event.

The results are intriguing. Nevertheless, I wonder if unconscious influence (priming) may be at work here even in those who did not get the neighborly advice before estimating their future emotional response (see my blog post “Is the Conscious Decision an Illusion? Pursuing Goals Unconsciously“). That is, not only is the input from another participant influencing the individual’s estimate of their emotional response to a future event but it’s influencing their perception of the event itself (while it happens). In this case, the influenced perception of the event itself would happen to both those who got advice before and those who received advice after they predicted their future emotional response. That would explain the good predictions of the former and the poor predictions made by the latter.


Other related blog posts:

Is the Conscious Decision an Illusion? Pursuing Goals Unconsciously

How Happy? Well-Being Research and Online Data Repositories

Many surveys attempt to gauge the sense of well being in individuals and groups. There has been no way to empirically validate the accuracy of these self reported data. The recent paper “Objective Confirmation of Subjective Measures of Human Well-Being: Evidence from the U.S.A.” published January 29, 2010 in Science set out to compare self reported levels of happiness with objective measures thought to reflect levels of happiness on a state-by-state level across the U.S.A.

On a state-by-state basis, researchers compared answers to the question “In general, how satisfied are you with your life?” (1. Very satisfied, 2. Satisfied, 3. Dissatisfied, or 4. Very dissatisfied) with probable levels of well being estimated from economic measures.

The question is part of the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey sponsored by of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention. With about 350,000 adults interviewed each year, the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System is the largest random-digit dialing telephone health survey in the world and it provides representative views into the self described health of people in the United States. These data are collected monthly and are available over the Internet.

The economic measures of well being were derived from compensating differentials. These measures are calculated from a number of location specific variables such as precipitation, temperature, commuting time, rates of violent crime, air quality, etc. A lot of the data used to calculate the economic measures of well being are collected by the U.S. Census Bureau and are published online in the “Statistical Abstract.” Some U.S. census data are available through the Semantic Web.

The research team found that, on a state-by-state basis, subjective reporting of happiness matched very well with the objective economic measures of well being. Their results provide an empirical bridge between psychology and economics and suggest that subjective measures of happiness may be used with confidence.